September marks one year since we launched The Triumvirate. What started as a simple idea—to bring sharper insight and stories into currencies, commodities, and central banks—has grown into a community of readers who share the same curiosity and passion for markets.

Over the past year, we’ve explored everything from the mechanics of the yen carry trade to the impact of catastrophe bonds, always with the goal of making complex dynamics clearer and more engaging. None of this would matter without you—the readers who open, share and engage with our content.

As we look ahead, we’re excited to deepen our research, expand the range of topics, and continue delivering thoughtful commentary that helps you connect the dots in an ever-changing global landscape.

Thank you for being part of our first year. Here’s to many more.

A viral chart circulating online claims that central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries. Even FT contributor Mohamed El-Erian shared it, fueling speculation of a turning point in the global monetary system. But does the data back this up? According to the Financial Times The IMF’s COFER report shows global allocated FX reserves of $11.6 trillion, with the dollar making up $6.7 trillion — 58% of the total. But this covers all USD-denominated assets, not just Treasuries.

Central banks also hold agency bonds and other forms of dollar debt. By contrast, the U.S. Treasury’s TIC data shows that foreign central banks held about $3.9 trillion in Treasuries at the end of June, out of $9.1 trillion total foreign holdings. Meanwhile, IMF gold reserve data, adjusted by market prices, valued central bank gold at $3.86 trillion at the same date. Since June, gold has rallied another 10.5%, pushing its value closer to $4.2 trillion. Unless central banks bought $200 billion in Treasuries over the summer, an unlikely scenario , gold likely overtook Treasuries in value as per the discussion on the figures by the Financial Times.

This shift is more about price action than central banks staging a dramatic flight from Treasuries. Gold prices are up 38% in 2025, partly fuelled by official sector demand. Central banks have been gradually accumulating gold since 2009, but official data doesn’t show a sharp acceleration this year. On the other side, Treasury prices — despite recent gains — remain below their levels from five years ago, before inflation eroded value.

Since the post-pandemic inflation spike and amid the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, central banks have been snapping up gold. The totals are now around 36,000 metric tons, with more than 1,000 tons added in each of the last three years according to Reuters — about double the average annual purchases in the preceding decade. With gold over US$3,500 an ounce and up roughly 35% so far this year, central bank gold holdings are estimated at US$4.5 trillion. That’s substantially more than their US$3.5 trillion in Treasuries. By some metrics, gold now makes up ~27% of global reserves, while Treasuries’ share has slid to ~23%, down from more than 30% in past years.

Reserve data itself is difficult to disentangle. TIC numbers may understate central bank holdings, since many are parked through custodians like Euroclear and Clearstream. COFER is self-reported, and it excludes agency debt that arguably should count as US government securities. And countries like China hold significant off-balance sheet reserves in state-owned banks and insurers, much of it still in Treasuries.

While central banks are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against dollar weaponization and U.S. policy risk, the “gold > Treasuries” narrative seems more a reflection of market prices than a structural shift in the global reserve system. The recent accumulation of gold has been a topic of discussion for at least the past eight years, suggesting that both price action and a gradual sentiment shift are driving this trend. Below are a few media headlines over the past few years showcasing the shift in sentiment.

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According to Reuters 1996 holds particular significance within the broader monetary system. In the late 1990s, many European countries sold gold aggressively ahead of the euro’s launch. The most surprising move came from Britain, which wasn’t even joining the single currency union. By August 1999, gold had slumped to around $250 an ounce—down 40% from early 1996. This collapse spurred central banks to introduce the “Washington Agreement” that September, effectively placing a cap on their collective sales.

Broadly speaking, the late 1990s were an unfavorable period for gold. Strong economic growth, low and stable inflation, subdued macro volatility, and even the rare occurrence of a U.S. budget surplus all weighed against it. Fast forward nearly three decades, and the global backdrop looks very different—far more supportive of gold. In relative terms, Treasuries are now the asset under pressure.

The Washington Agreement created predictability in the gold market, easing fears of a “race to the bottom” in central bank sales and cutting through years of uncertainty. Almost immediately, gold rebounded, climbing from $255 to over $320 per ounce within months, and market confidence returned. The discipline and transparency introduced by the agreement made gold attractive again as a reserve asset. Central banks, which had been steadily reducing their holdings, began shifting course, setting the stage for net purchases in the decades that followed. Its renewal and evolution over subsequent years reinforced this long-term framework, further cementing gold’s role as a stable and strategic reserve asset.

U.S. Treasuries in 2025 have faced significant volatility and relative underperformance. Yields have risen compared to 2024, and prices have faltered under a mix of macroeconomic and policy pressures. The 10-year Treasury yield has hovered around 4.1%–4.4% for much of the year, recently reaching 4.13% as of mid-September. Yields peaked at 4.79% earlier in the year before declining slightly, but they remain elevated relative to the previous year. Fixed income markets saw some rebound in early 2025 as yields dipped amid economic uncertainty and a flight to safety, yet the overall trend has been upward. Because Treasury prices move inversely to yields, these higher rates have translated into weak or negative returns for holders.

Several factors are driving this underperformance according to Morgan Stanley. Sticky inflation has kept yields elevated despite Federal Reserve rate cuts aimed at stimulating the economy, as investors continue to demand higher returns on new Treasuries. Ballooning budget deficits and political uncertainty under the new Presidential administration have also eroded confidence in the long-term value of U.S. debt. Meanwhile, diminished foreign demand has added to market volatility, forcing higher yields to attract buyers. Correlated selloffs in stocks and bonds since late 2024 have undermined Treasuries’ traditional safe-haven appeal, amplifying losses for portfolios. Finally, while the Fed has begun easing rates, its guidance has been less dovish than markets anticipated, with a slower pace of cuts keeping concerns about inflation and growth alive.

Looking ahead, most analysts expect 10-year yields to remain in the 4–5% range for the rest of 2025, with bouts of volatility as markets react to Fed moves, inflation data, and political developments. Treasury underperformance is likely to persist unless inflation falls faster than expected or the Fed implements larger or more frequent rate cuts.

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Some of the charts in our weekly editions are created using Datawrapper, a tool we use to present data clearly and effectively. It helps us ensure that the visuals you see are accurate and easy to understand. The data for all our published charts is available through Datawrapper and can be accessed upon request.

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